Polymarket β†— Launch β†’Launch

How to read the signals

A two-minute guide to using PolyEdgeFinder β€” what the numbers mean, which slots to trust, and how to never miss a strong one.

Start here

Signal strength, from weak to strong

Every slot gets a Signal Strength score from 0 to 10. It blends three things: how far the slot leans from a 50/50 coin flip, how statistically significant that lean is, and how much history backs it. Use it as your first filter.

06710
0 – 6
Weak
Little or no edge. The slot behaves close to random. Best skipped β€” there is no reliable direction here.
6 – 7
Moderate
A real but modest lean. Worth a look, but treat with care and check the significance stars.
7 – 10
Strong
A clear, well-supported edge. These are the confident slots β€” higher Edge, more significance, more history. This is what you want.
Rule of thumb: below 6, look elsewhere. Favor slots with a high Edge and significance stars.

Never miss a strong slot

Patterns shift over time, and strong slots come and go. Subscribing to the bell on a slot means the bot watches it for you and alerts you in time β€” no need to keep the site open. Still, check back regularly: new slots appear and old patterns fade.

Open the Edge Finder β†’
The vocabulary

Every term, in plain words

Edge Score
How far a slot leans from 50/50, adjusted for how much data backs it. Ranges from βˆ’100 (always DOWN) to +100 (always UP). 0 means unpredictable. Below |5| is essentially noise.
Z-score
A statistical measure of "how unlikely is it that this lean is just luck?" The bigger the absolute value, the less likely it is random. Above 1.96 means roughly 95% confidence it is not chance.
Significance (stars)
A visual shorthand for the Z-score. β˜… = weak significance (p ≀ 0.10), β˜…β˜… = significant (p ≀ 0.05), β˜…β˜…β˜… = highly significant (p ≀ 0.01). More stars, more trust that the pattern is real.
Signal Strength
The 0–10 summary above. Combines Edge, significance and sample size into one number so you can rank slots at a glance.
Confidence
How much to trust the numbers, based on how many times the slot has occurred. Few samples β†’ Low. Lots β†’ High.
Sample / n / Counting Days
How many times this slot has happened in the chosen window (30 or 90 days). More occurrences usually means steadier statistics β€” but read it together with the market, not in isolation.
Volatility
How much the price swung inside the slot. High volatility means a noisier market and a less dependable pattern.
Price to Beat
The starting price the slot is measured against. If the close is above it, the slot resolves UP; below, DOWN.
In the Edge Finder

What each block is for

Top UP / DOWN Edge
The strongest leaning slots, ranked. Your shortlist of where the biggest historical edges are right now.
Heatmap
A day Γ— hour grid showing where UP/DOWN skews cluster. Spot patterns visually β€” a column or row that stays green or red is worth investigating.
Best Day
For a given slot, which weekday has been the most directional. Some slots only show their edge on specific days.
Upcoming Slots
The next slots about to start, each with its Edge, direction and Signal Strength β€” so you can act before they open.
Slot subscriptions πŸ””
Tap the bell on any upcoming slot to subscribe. Our Telegram bot pings you a couple of minutes before that slot starts, but only when the signal is strong. Subscribe to the strong slots so you never miss them.
Going deeper

Using the History explorer

History is where you dig into the past by hand. Pick any coin, timeframe and time slot, and see exactly how it has resolved β€” over the last 30 or 90 days, your choice.

For example: check how Bitcoin closes at 3:00 PM on Mondays, or whether Ethereum tends to fall in the first hour of trading. The weekday breakdown shows whether a slot's edge is concentrated on particular days.

Use History to confirm a hunch before trusting it: a pattern that holds across many weekdays and many occurrences is more reliable than a one-off streak.

Sample size vs. market cycles

A bigger sample is generally better, but not always: crypto moves in cycles, and when the market's micro-regime shifts, a fresh 30-day window can describe what's happening now more accurately than 90 days that average across an old regime. Compare both windows and watch the market β€” if 30 and 90 days disagree, the recent cycle may have changed.

Remember

These are historical patterns, not predictions. Markets stay efficient much of the time β€” a strong edge is the exception, not the rule. Use the data to tilt the odds, not as a guarantee.

Not financial advice. Historical data for research only.