How often does Bitcoin close UP vs DOWN in 4-hour Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.
Bitcoin is largely efficient at 4-hour — outcomes stay close to a coin flip across most slots. That itself is useful: it tells you not to expect a reliable directional edge here.
Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 4:00AM-8:00AM ET, which closed UP 62% of the time across 76 markets. By weekday, Monday has been the most directional.
Across the most recent markets, Bitcoin closed UP 52% of the time in 4-hour slots (456 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.
The slot with the strongest UP lean is 4:00AM-8:00AM (62% UP over 76 occurrences).
The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 4:00AM-8:00AM (38% DOWN over 76 occurrences).
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00AM-8:00AM | 62% | 38% | 76 | ★★ |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12AM ET | 53% | 47% | 76 |
| 4AM ET | 62% | 38% | 76 |
| 8AM ET | 53% | 47% | 76 |
| 12PM ET | 49% | 51% | 76 |
| 4PM ET | 54% | 46% | 76 |
| 8PM ET | 43% | 57% | 76 |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 54% | 46% | 61 |
| Monday | 65% | 35% | 65 |
| Tuesday | 44% | 56% | 66 |
| Wednesday | 50% | 50% | 66 |
| Thursday | 45% | 55% | 66 |
| Friday | 56% | 44% | 66 |
| Saturday | 52% | 48% | 66 |
Each 4-hour Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.