How often does Bitcoin close UP vs DOWN in 5-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.
Bitcoin shows a clear, repeatable skew at 5-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.
Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 3:00AM-3:05AM ET, which closed DOWN 67% of the time across 90 markets.
Across the most recent markets, Bitcoin closed UP 50% of the time in 5-minute slots (25,902 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.
The slot with the strongest UP lean is 3:50PM-3:55PM (62% UP over 90 occurrences).
The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 3:00AM-3:05AM (67% DOWN over 90 occurrences).
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00AM-3:05AM | 33% | 67% | 90 | ★★★ |
| 9:25AM-9:30AM | 34% | 66% | 90 | ★★★ |
| 8:35PM-8:40PM | 34% | 66% | 90 | ★★★ |
| 9:00AM-9:05AM | 36% | 64% | 90 | ★★★ |
| 4:05AM-4:10AM | 38% | 62% | 90 | ★★ |
| 7:25AM-7:30AM | 38% | 62% | 90 | ★★ |
| 11:15AM-11:20AM | 38% | 62% | 90 | ★★ |
| 3:50PM-3:55PM | 62% | 38% | 90 | ★★ |
| 12:30AM-12:35AM | 39% | 61% | 90 | ★★ |
| 12:35AM-12:40AM | 61% | 39% | 90 | ★★ |
| 8:25AM-8:30AM | 61% | 39% | 90 | ★★ |
| 10:25AM-10:30AM | 61% | 39% | 90 | ★★ |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12AM ET | 48% | 52% | 1080 |
| 1AM ET | 48% | 52% | 1080 |
| 2AM ET | 51% | 49% | 1080 |
| 3AM ET | 50% | 50% | 1080 |
| 4AM ET | 50% | 50% | 1080 |
| 5AM ET | 51% | 49% | 1080 |
| 6AM ET | 51% | 49% | 1080 |
| 7AM ET | 49% | 51% | 1080 |
| 8AM ET | 51% | 49% | 1080 |
| 9AM ET | 46% | 54% | 1080 |
| 10AM ET | 51% | 49% | 1079 |
| 11AM ET | 48% | 52% | 1076 |
| 12PM ET | 50% | 50% | 1075 |
| 1PM ET | 50% | 50% | 1078 |
| 2PM ET | 49% | 51% | 1080 |
| 3PM ET | 52% | 48% | 1080 |
| 4PM ET | 52% | 48% | 1075 |
| 5PM ET | 50% | 50% | 1080 |
| 6PM ET | 48% | 52% | 1080 |
| 7PM ET | 53% | 47% | 1080 |
| 8PM ET | 50% | 50% | 1080 |
| 9PM ET | 49% | 51% | 1080 |
| 10PM ET | 49% | 51% | 1079 |
| 11PM ET | 51% | 49% | 1080 |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 51% | 49% | 3743 |
| Monday | 48% | 52% | 3744 |
| Tuesday | 49% | 51% | 3743 |
| Wednesday | 50% | 50% | 3738 |
| Thursday | 49% | 51% | 3644 |
| Friday | 49% | 51% | 3547 |
| Saturday | 52% | 48% | 3743 |
Each 5-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.