How often does Bitcoin close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.
Bitcoin shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.
Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 9:00AM-9:15AM ET, which closed DOWN 69% of the time across 90 markets.
Across the most recent markets, Bitcoin closed UP 49% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,629 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.
The slot with the strongest UP lean is 2:30AM-2:45AM (61% UP over 90 occurrences).
The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 9:00AM-9:15AM (69% DOWN over 90 occurrences).
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00AM-9:15AM | 31% | 69% | 90 | ★★★ |
| 9:15AM-9:30AM | 34% | 66% | 90 | ★★★ |
| 5:15AM-5:30AM | 37% | 63% | 90 | ★★ |
| 10:15PM-10:30PM | 37% | 63% | 90 | ★★ |
| 2:30AM-2:45AM | 61% | 39% | 90 | ★★ |
| 9:15PM-9:30PM | 39% | 61% | 89 | ★★ |
| 1:00AM-1:15AM | 60% | 40% | 89 | ★ |
| 6:30AM-6:45AM | 60% | 40% | 90 | ★ |
| 9:30PM-9:45PM | 40% | 60% | 90 | ★ |
| 10:00PM-10:15PM | 60% | 40% | 90 | ★ |
| 11:45PM-12:00AM | 40% | 60% | 90 | ★ |
| 4:00PM-4:15PM | 59% | 41% | 90 | ★ |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12AM ET | 52% | 48% | 359 |
| 1AM ET | 54% | 46% | 356 |
| 2AM ET | 51% | 49% | 360 |
| 3AM ET | 49% | 51% | 360 |
| 4AM ET | 53% | 47% | 360 |
| 5AM ET | 49% | 51% | 360 |
| 6AM ET | 50% | 50% | 360 |
| 7AM ET | 51% | 49% | 360 |
| 8AM ET | 47% | 53% | 360 |
| 9AM ET | 45% | 55% | 360 |
| 10AM ET | 53% | 47% | 360 |
| 11AM ET | 54% | 46% | 360 |
| 12PM ET | 48% | 52% | 360 |
| 1PM ET | 48% | 52% | 360 |
| 2PM ET | 49% | 51% | 360 |
| 3PM ET | 49% | 51% | 360 |
| 4PM ET | 50% | 50% | 360 |
| 5PM ET | 49% | 51% | 360 |
| 6PM ET | 49% | 51% | 360 |
| 7PM ET | 48% | 52% | 360 |
| 8PM ET | 47% | 53% | 356 |
| 9PM ET | 42% | 58% | 358 |
| 10PM ET | 48% | 52% | 360 |
| 11PM ET | 45% | 55% | 360 |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 51% | 49% | 1147 |
| Monday | 49% | 51% | 1242 |
| Tuesday | 48% | 52% | 1248 |
| Wednesday | 49% | 51% | 1248 |
| Thursday | 46% | 54% | 1248 |
| Friday | 50% | 50% | 1248 |
| Saturday | 50% | 50% | 1248 |
Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.