BTC Up/Down — Base Rates & Streaks
Over 37,220 resolved Polymarket Bitcoin Up/Down markets, price closed up 49.6% of the time. Below: base rate, streaks and the current streak for each timeframe.
5m25,896 markets
49.8%Up
Up / Down49.8% / 50.2%
Longest up streak11
Longest down streak13
Current streak1 · Up
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $784.6k · 2026-06-14 · Up
15m8,633 markets
49.2%Up
Up / Down49.2% / 50.8%
Longest up streak10
Longest down streak13
Current streak1 · Down
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $349.3k · 2026-05-21 · Up
1h2,152 markets
49.2%Up
Up / Down49.2% / 50.8%
Longest up streak8
Longest down streak7
Current streak2 · Up
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $269.3k · 2026-05-18 · Up
4h539 markets
48.8%Up
Up / Down48.8% / 51.2%
Longest up streak6
Longest down streak5
Current streak1 · Down
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $97.5k · 2026-07-22 · Up
A base rate is the share of markets that closed up. Values near 50% mean a near-fair coin: a durable edge comes from skill, not from guessing the side.
updated regularly