BTC Up/Down — Base Rates & Streaks
Over 37,250 resolved Polymarket Bitcoin Up/Down markets, price closed up 49.9% of the time. Below: base rate, streaks and the current streak for each timeframe.
5m25,915 markets
49.8%Up
Up / Down49.8% / 50.2%
Longest up streak11
Longest down streak13
Current streak4 · Down
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $388.2k · 2026-07-09 · Down
15m8,639 markets
49.9%Up
Up / Down49.9% / 50.1%
Longest up streak11
Longest down streak10
Current streak1 · Up
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $457.1k · 2026-09-11 · Up
1h2,157 markets
51.0%Up
Up / Down51.0% / 49.0%
Longest up streak8
Longest down streak8
Current streak1 · Down
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $197.3k · 2026-07-02 · Up
4h539 markets
52.5%Up
Up / Down52.5% / 47.5%
Longest up streak10
Longest down streak6
Current streak2 · Up
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $100.0k · 2026-08-19 · Down
A base rate is the share of markets that closed up. Values near 50% mean a near-fair coin: a durable edge comes from skill, not from guessing the side.
updated regularly