BTC Up/Down — Base Rates & Streaks
Over 37,132 resolved Polymarket Bitcoin Up/Down markets, price closed up 49.6% of the time. Below: base rate, streaks and the current streak for each timeframe.
5m25,892 markets
49.7%Up
Up / Down49.7% / 50.3%
Longest up streak12
Longest down streak13
Current streak1 · Up
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $481.4k · 2026-10-09 · Up
15m8,629 markets
49.1%Up
Up / Down49.1% / 50.9%
Longest up streak11
Longest down streak16
Current streak3 · Down
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $491.9k · 2026-10-24 · Down
1h2,155 markets
49.6%Up
Up / Down49.6% / 50.4%
Longest up streak8
Longest down streak9
Current streak1 · Down
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $190.0k · 2026-08-31 · Down
4h456 markets
52.2%Up
Up / Down52.2% / 47.8%
Longest up streak10
Longest down streak7
Current streak2 · Up
Recent outcomes
Biggest market: $101.2k · 2026-10-06 · Down
A base rate is the share of markets that closed up. Values near 50% mean a near-fair coin: a durable edge comes from skill, not from guessing the side.
updated regularly