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XRP 5-minute Up or Down — historical patterns

How often does XRP close UP vs DOWN in 5-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.

XRP shows a clear, repeatable skew at 5-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.

Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 6:35AM-6:40AM ET, which closed UP 68% of the time across 90 markets.

Overview

49% UP

Across the most recent markets, XRP closed UP 49% of the time in 5-minute slots (25,887 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.

Strongest patterns

The slot with the strongest UP lean is 6:35AM-6:40AM (68% UP over 90 occurrences).

The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 3:30AM-3:35AM (67% DOWN over 90 occurrences).

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %MarketsSignificance
6:35AM-6:40AM68%32%90★★★
3:30AM-3:35AM33%67%90★★★
6:45AM-6:50AM67%33%90★★★
4:45PM-4:50PM34%66%90★★★
2:30PM-2:35PM36%64%90★★★
11:10AM-11:15AM36%64%89★★★
6:05AM-6:10AM37%63%90★★
9:25AM-9:30AM37%63%89★★
10:15AM-10:20AM37%63%89★★
2:50AM-2:55AM38%62%90★★
6:15AM-6:20AM62%38%90★★
9:55PM-10:00PM38%62%90★★

Win rate by time of day (ET)

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
12AM ET48%52%1080
1AM ET49%51%1080
2AM ET49%51%1080
3AM ET48%52%1080
4AM ET50%50%1080
5AM ET49%51%1080
6AM ET53%47%1080
7AM ET49%51%1080
8AM ET50%50%1078
9AM ET50%50%1068
10AM ET51%49%1067
11AM ET51%49%1075
12PM ET49%51%1080
1PM ET49%51%1080
2PM ET49%51%1080
3PM ET50%50%1080
4PM ET49%51%1080
5PM ET49%51%1080
6PM ET47%53%1080
7PM ET50%50%1080
8PM ET49%51%1080
9PM ET48%52%1080
10PM ET49%51%1079
11PM ET49%51%1080

Win rate by day of week

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
Sunday50%50%3743
Monday47%53%3744
Tuesday49%51%3744
Wednesday49%51%3609
Thursday49%51%3559
Friday50%50%3744
Saturday52%48%3744
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How this works

Each 5-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Updated: 2026-09-30 · Not financial advice. Historical data only.