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XRP 15-minute Up or Down — historical patterns

How often does XRP close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.

XRP shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.

Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 6:30AM-6:45AM ET, which closed UP 66% of the time across 90 markets.

Overview

50% UP

Across the most recent markets, XRP closed UP 50% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,638 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.

Strongest patterns

The slot with the strongest UP lean is 6:30AM-6:45AM (66% UP over 90 occurrences).

The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 4:45PM-5:00PM (63% DOWN over 90 occurrences).

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %MarketsSignificance
6:30AM-6:45AM66%34%90★★★
4:45PM-5:00PM37%63%90★★
6:15AM-6:30AM62%38%90★★
2:30AM-2:45AM61%39%90★★
5:30AM-5:45AM40%60%90★
11:30PM-11:45PM60%40%90★
12:15AM-12:30AM59%41%90★
4:00AM-4:15AM41%59%90★
1:30PM-1:45PM59%41%90★
2:30PM-2:45PM41%59%90★

Win rate by time of day (ET)

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
12AM ET54%46%360
1AM ET53%47%360
2AM ET51%49%360
3AM ET50%50%360
4AM ET48%52%360
5AM ET49%51%360
6AM ET57%43%360
7AM ET49%51%360
8AM ET48%52%360
9AM ET51%49%360
10AM ET52%48%360
11AM ET51%49%358
12PM ET49%51%360
1PM ET50%50%360
2PM ET47%53%360
3PM ET52%48%360
4PM ET48%52%360
5PM ET50%50%360
6PM ET46%54%360
7PM ET51%49%360
8PM ET48%52%360
9PM ET46%54%360
10PM ET47%53%360
11PM ET53%47%360

Win rate by day of week

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
Sunday51%49%1248
Monday49%51%1248
Tuesday48%52%1248
Wednesday50%50%1212
Thursday49%51%1186
Friday49%51%1248
Saturday53%47%1248
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How this works

Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Updated: 2026-09-30 · Not financial advice. Historical data only.