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XRP 15-minute Up or Down — historical patterns

How often does XRP close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.

XRP shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.

Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 3:30PM-3:45PM ET, which closed UP 66% of the time across 89 markets.

Overview

49% UP

Across the most recent markets, XRP closed UP 49% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,451 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.

Strongest patterns

The slot with the strongest UP lean is 3:30PM-3:45PM (66% UP over 89 occurrences).

The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 10:15PM-10:30PM (66% DOWN over 88 occurrences).

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %MarketsSignificance
3:30PM-3:45PM66%34%89★★★
10:15PM-10:30PM34%66%88★★★
7:00PM-7:15PM35%65%88★★★
10:45AM-11:00AM64%36%88★★
1:45PM-2:00PM38%62%88★★
6:30PM-6:45PM38%62%88★★
1:15AM-1:30AM39%61%88★★
5:45AM-6:00AM41%59%88
6:30AM-6:45AM59%41%88
9:15AM-9:30AM41%59%88
10:15AM-10:30AM41%59%88
2:30PM-2:45PM41%59%88

Win rate by time of day (ET)

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
12AM ET49%51%352
1AM ET46%54%352
2AM ET51%49%352
3AM ET50%50%352
4AM ET47%53%352
5AM ET49%51%352
6AM ET51%49%352
7AM ET46%54%352
8AM ET50%50%352
9AM ET48%52%352
10AM ET50%50%352
11AM ET48%52%350
12PM ET50%50%351
1PM ET49%51%352
2PM ET44%56%352
3PM ET54%46%354
4PM ET49%51%355
5PM ET49%51%353
6PM ET45%55%352
7PM ET47%53%352
8PM ET48%52%352
9PM ET49%51%352
10PM ET44%56%352
11PM ET53%47%352

Win rate by day of week

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
Sunday50%50%1169
Monday47%53%1248
Tuesday48%52%1248
Wednesday47%53%1247
Thursday49%51%1214
Friday47%53%1173
Saturday52%48%1152
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How this works

Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Updated: 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice. Historical data only.