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Hyperliquid 5-minute Up or Down — historical patterns

How often does Hyperliquid close UP vs DOWN in 5-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.

Hyperliquid shows a clear, repeatable skew at 5-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.

Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 4:35PM-4:40PM ET, which closed DOWN 66% of the time across 90 markets.

Overview

50% UP

Across the most recent markets, Hyperliquid closed UP 50% of the time in 5-minute slots (25,904 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.

Strongest patterns

The slot with the strongest UP lean is 3:20AM-3:25AM (62% UP over 90 occurrences).

The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 4:35PM-4:40PM (66% DOWN over 90 occurrences).

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %MarketsSignificance
4:35PM-4:40PM34%66%90★★★
6:25PM-6:30PM34%66%90★★★
8:15PM-8:20PM37%63%90★★
3:20AM-3:25AM62%38%90★★
8:50AM-8:55AM62%38%90★★
3:10PM-3:15PM38%62%90★★
9:35PM-9:40PM38%62%90★★
8:10PM-8:15PM61%39%90★★
2:05AM-2:10AM40%60%90
3:15AM-3:20AM60%40%90
4:25AM-4:30AM60%40%90
7:20AM-7:25AM60%40%90

Win rate by time of day (ET)

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
12AM ET49%51%1080
1AM ET52%48%1080
2AM ET49%51%1080
3AM ET51%49%1080
4AM ET52%48%1080
5AM ET50%50%1080
6AM ET50%50%1080
7AM ET50%50%1080
8AM ET52%48%1080
9AM ET49%51%1080
10AM ET50%50%1079
11AM ET50%50%1075
12PM ET49%51%1076
1PM ET50%50%1077
2PM ET49%51%1080
3PM ET51%49%1080
4PM ET48%52%1077
5PM ET49%51%1080
6PM ET50%50%1080
7PM ET51%49%1080
8PM ET50%50%1080
9PM ET48%52%1080
10PM ET49%51%1080
11PM ET49%51%1080

Win rate by day of week

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
Sunday51%49%3745
Monday49%51%3743
Tuesday49%51%3743
Wednesday50%50%3739
Thursday50%50%3644
Friday50%50%3547
Saturday49%51%3743
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How this works

Each 5-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Updated: 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice. Historical data only.