How often does BNB close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.
BNB shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.
Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 6:30PM-6:45PM ET, which closed DOWN 67% of the time across 88 markets.
Across the most recent markets, BNB closed UP 50% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,449 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.
The slot with the strongest UP lean is 8:00PM-8:15PM (66% UP over 88 occurrences).
The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 6:30PM-6:45PM (67% DOWN over 88 occurrences).
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:30PM-6:45PM | 33% | 67% | 88 | ★★★ |
| 8:00PM-8:15PM | 66% | 34% | 88 | ★★★ |
| 12:00AM-12:15AM | 35% | 65% | 88 | ★★★ |
| 8:45AM-9:00AM | 65% | 35% | 88 | ★★★ |
| 9:15AM-9:30AM | 35% | 65% | 88 | ★★★ |
| 4:15PM-4:30PM | 35% | 65% | 89 | ★★★ |
| 5:00AM-5:15AM | 39% | 61% | 88 | ★★ |
| 8:00AM-8:15AM | 39% | 61% | 88 | ★★ |
| 1:45PM-2:00PM | 39% | 61% | 88 | ★★ |
| 4:00PM-4:15PM | 61% | 39% | 89 | ★★ |
| 1:30AM-1:45AM | 60% | 40% | 88 | ★ |
| 4:30AM-4:45AM | 60% | 40% | 88 | ★ |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12AM ET | 41% | 59% | 352 |
| 1AM ET | 53% | 47% | 352 |
| 2AM ET | 48% | 52% | 352 |
| 3AM ET | 54% | 46% | 352 |
| 4AM ET | 52% | 48% | 352 |
| 5AM ET | 48% | 52% | 352 |
| 6AM ET | 49% | 51% | 352 |
| 7AM ET | 54% | 46% | 351 |
| 8AM ET | 53% | 47% | 352 |
| 9AM ET | 49% | 51% | 352 |
| 10AM ET | 50% | 50% | 351 |
| 11AM ET | 51% | 49% | 350 |
| 12PM ET | 51% | 49% | 351 |
| 1PM ET | 50% | 50% | 352 |
| 2PM ET | 50% | 50% | 352 |
| 3PM ET | 51% | 49% | 353 |
| 4PM ET | 46% | 54% | 356 |
| 5PM ET | 52% | 48% | 353 |
| 6PM ET | 45% | 55% | 352 |
| 7PM ET | 52% | 48% | 352 |
| 8PM ET | 53% | 47% | 352 |
| 9PM ET | 48% | 52% | 352 |
| 10PM ET | 47% | 53% | 352 |
| 11PM ET | 51% | 49% | 352 |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 51% | 49% | 1167 |
| Monday | 48% | 52% | 1248 |
| Tuesday | 50% | 50% | 1248 |
| Wednesday | 50% | 50% | 1247 |
| Thursday | 48% | 52% | 1214 |
| Friday | 49% | 51% | 1173 |
| Saturday | 52% | 48% | 1152 |
Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.