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BNB 15-minute Up or Down — historical patterns

How often does BNB close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.

BNB shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.

Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 6:30PM-6:45PM ET, which closed DOWN 67% of the time across 88 markets.

Overview

50% UP

Across the most recent markets, BNB closed UP 50% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,449 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.

Strongest patterns

The slot with the strongest UP lean is 8:00PM-8:15PM (66% UP over 88 occurrences).

The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 6:30PM-6:45PM (67% DOWN over 88 occurrences).

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %MarketsSignificance
6:30PM-6:45PM33%67%88★★★
8:00PM-8:15PM66%34%88★★★
12:00AM-12:15AM35%65%88★★★
8:45AM-9:00AM65%35%88★★★
9:15AM-9:30AM35%65%88★★★
4:15PM-4:30PM35%65%89★★★
5:00AM-5:15AM39%61%88★★
8:00AM-8:15AM39%61%88★★
1:45PM-2:00PM39%61%88★★
4:00PM-4:15PM61%39%89★★
1:30AM-1:45AM60%40%88
4:30AM-4:45AM60%40%88

Win rate by time of day (ET)

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
12AM ET41%59%352
1AM ET53%47%352
2AM ET48%52%352
3AM ET54%46%352
4AM ET52%48%352
5AM ET48%52%352
6AM ET49%51%352
7AM ET54%46%351
8AM ET53%47%352
9AM ET49%51%352
10AM ET50%50%351
11AM ET51%49%350
12PM ET51%49%351
1PM ET50%50%352
2PM ET50%50%352
3PM ET51%49%353
4PM ET46%54%356
5PM ET52%48%353
6PM ET45%55%352
7PM ET52%48%352
8PM ET53%47%352
9PM ET48%52%352
10PM ET47%53%352
11PM ET51%49%352

Win rate by day of week

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
Sunday51%49%1167
Monday48%52%1248
Tuesday50%50%1248
Wednesday50%50%1247
Thursday48%52%1214
Friday49%51%1173
Saturday52%48%1152
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How this works

Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Updated: 2026-08-13 · Not financial advice. Historical data only.