How often does Ethereum close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.
Ethereum shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.
Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 6:30PM-6:45PM ET, which closed DOWN 66% of the time across 88 markets.
Across the most recent markets, Ethereum closed UP 49% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,450 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.
The slot with the strongest UP lean is 3:30PM-3:45PM (64% UP over 89 occurrences).
The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 6:30PM-6:45PM (66% DOWN over 88 occurrences).
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:30PM-6:45PM | 34% | 66% | 88 | ★★★ |
| 3:30PM-3:45PM | 64% | 36% | 89 | ★★★ |
| 10:15PM-10:30PM | 36% | 64% | 87 | ★★★ |
| 10:45AM-11:00AM | 63% | 37% | 88 | ★★ |
| 10:15AM-10:30AM | 39% | 61% | 88 | ★★ |
| 11:00AM-11:15AM | 61% | 39% | 88 | ★★ |
| 8:15PM-8:30PM | 39% | 61% | 88 | ★★ |
| 12:45AM-1:00AM | 40% | 60% | 88 | ★ |
| 3:00AM-3:15AM | 40% | 60% | 88 | ★ |
| 1:15PM-1:30PM | 60% | 40% | 88 | ★ |
| 3:15PM-3:30PM | 60% | 40% | 88 | ★ |
| 5:00PM-5:15PM | 60% | 40% | 89 | ★ |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12AM ET | 47% | 53% | 352 |
| 1AM ET | 51% | 49% | 352 |
| 2AM ET | 51% | 49% | 352 |
| 3AM ET | 47% | 53% | 352 |
| 4AM ET | 49% | 51% | 352 |
| 5AM ET | 51% | 49% | 352 |
| 6AM ET | 47% | 53% | 352 |
| 7AM ET | 52% | 48% | 352 |
| 8AM ET | 48% | 52% | 352 |
| 9AM ET | 48% | 52% | 352 |
| 10AM ET | 51% | 49% | 352 |
| 11AM ET | 53% | 47% | 350 |
| 12PM ET | 48% | 52% | 351 |
| 1PM ET | 53% | 47% | 352 |
| 2PM ET | 49% | 51% | 352 |
| 3PM ET | 54% | 46% | 354 |
| 4PM ET | 50% | 50% | 355 |
| 5PM ET | 50% | 50% | 353 |
| 6PM ET | 42% | 58% | 352 |
| 7PM ET | 51% | 49% | 352 |
| 8PM ET | 48% | 52% | 352 |
| 9PM ET | 49% | 51% | 352 |
| 10PM ET | 44% | 56% | 351 |
| 11PM ET | 54% | 46% | 352 |
| Slot (ET) | UP % | DOWN % | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 51% | 49% | 1169 |
| Monday | 49% | 51% | 1248 |
| Tuesday | 50% | 50% | 1248 |
| Wednesday | 49% | 51% | 1247 |
| Thursday | 49% | 51% | 1214 |
| Friday | 47% | 53% | 1172 |
| Saturday | 51% | 49% | 1152 |
Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.