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Solana 15-minute Up or Down — historical patterns

How often does Solana close UP vs DOWN in 15-minute Polymarket markets? This page breaks down real historical outcomes — by time of day and day of week — so you can spot statistical patterns. Data updates automatically.

Solana shows a clear, repeatable skew at 15-minute — several slots deviate well beyond chance, which is unusual for short-term crypto markets.

Key takeaway: The standout pattern is 3:30AM-3:45AM ET, which closed DOWN 69% of the time across 90 markets.

Overview

50% UP

Across the most recent markets, Solana closed UP 50% of the time in 15-minute slots (8,637 markets analyzed). A reading near 50% means the market is efficient; a strong skew suggests a recurring pattern.

Strongest patterns

The slot with the strongest UP lean is 7:15PM-7:30PM (64% UP over 90 occurrences).

The slot with the strongest DOWN lean is 3:30AM-3:45AM (69% DOWN over 90 occurrences).

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %MarketsSignificance
3:30AM-3:45AM31%69%90★★★
7:15PM-7:30PM64%36%90★★★
11:45PM-12:00AM37%63%90★★
12:45AM-1:00AM39%61%90★★
3:45AM-4:00AM39%61%90★★
11:30AM-11:45AM61%39%90★★
4:45PM-5:00PM39%61%90★★
8:30PM-8:45PM39%61%90★★
9:15PM-9:30PM40%60%90★
4:15AM-4:30AM59%41%90★
12:45PM-1:00PM59%41%90★
4:00PM-4:15PM59%41%90★

Win rate by time of day (ET)

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
12AM ET50%50%360
1AM ET51%49%360
2AM ET46%54%360
3AM ET42%58%360
4AM ET53%47%360
5AM ET51%49%360
6AM ET53%47%360
7AM ET52%48%360
8AM ET50%50%360
9AM ET49%51%360
10AM ET51%49%359
11AM ET54%46%358
12PM ET48%52%360
1PM ET51%49%360
2PM ET52%48%360
3PM ET51%49%360
4PM ET51%49%360
5PM ET50%50%360
6PM ET49%51%360
7PM ET56%44%360
8PM ET43%57%360
9PM ET46%54%360
10PM ET49%51%360
11PM ET49%51%360

Win rate by day of week

Slot (ET)UP %DOWN %Markets
Sunday51%49%1248
Monday47%53%1248
Tuesday49%51%1248
Wednesday49%51%1211
Thursday50%50%1186
Friday51%49%1248
Saturday52%48%1248
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How this works

Each 15-minute Polymarket market resolves UP or DOWN. We aggregate outcomes by their start time and weekday, then compute the UP rate and a statistical significance score (Z-score). Patterns with more occurrences and higher Z-scores are more reliable. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Updated: 2026-09-30 · Not financial advice. Historical data only.